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US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $47.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $647.7KEvent: US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens
58.5¢
Naomi Osaka
41.5¢
Elise Mertens
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets88Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:120 trades$320.2K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Naomi Osaka · $150.4K net·13 wallets(3🐋)·$170.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNaomi Osaka$47.8K@ 76¢·beachboy4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Naomi Osaka SETUP
What the tape says

Naomi Osaka pressure: $10.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.8K
6h
+$145.3K
tracked
$320.2K

13 verified profitable wallets: Naomi Osaka · $150.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 64

Since latest large flow: -31.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Naomi Osaka or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Elise Mertens in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Elise Mertens. This market will resolve to 'Elise Mertens' if Elise Mertens advances against Naomi Osaka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Naomi Osaka@ 90.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -36.0pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY Naomi Osaka@ 90.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -36.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Naomi Osaka2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Naomi Osaka@ 80.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +14.0pp
Latest book event: Elise Mertens UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $407 → $216 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Naomi Osaka; negative values favor Elise Mertens. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNaomi Osaka · $10.8K
6hNaomi Osaka · $145.3K
24hNaomi Osaka · $143.2K

Naomi Osaka price VWAP

Volume-weighted Naomi Osaka price. Elise Mertens fills are converted to the complementary Naomi Osaka probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h69.2¢▼ below by 10.7pp
VWAP 7d69.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Naomi Osaka price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$13.6K
90¢
$2.1K
85¢
$43.4K
80¢
$16.5K
75¢
$79.2K
70¢
$59.0K
65¢
$22.8K
60¢
$7.5K
55¢
← now
$2.2K
50¢
$0
45¢
$34.4K
40¢
$11.0K
35¢
$2
30¢
$9.2K
25¢
$18.3K
20¢
$1.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNaomi Osaka$12.2K@ 74.6¢
paquitomillonario0x04e6…3914
🐋—7 minutes ago
SELLElise Mertens$24.4K@ 50.7¢
Brimoz0x565c…878d
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYElise Mertens$10.0K@ 52.3¢
soukaev0x7568…2ce1
🐋—42 minutes ago
SELLNaomi Osaka$11.4K@ 86.0¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNaomi Osaka$10.0K@ 95.0¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNaomi Osaka$26.8K@ 86.6¢0x52f5…5e8a🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNaomi Osaka$18.2K@ 76.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNaomi Osaka$10.0K@ 76.0¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNaomi Osaka$47.8K@ 76.0¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNaomi Osaka$37.4K@ 74.8¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beachboy4Naomi Osaka$103.4K
BUY VWAP 75.5¢·3 fills
0x52f5…5e8aNaomi Osaka$26.8K
BUY VWAP 86.6¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardNaomi Osaka$13.8K
BUY VWAP 73.6¢·3 fills
jarosbillElise Mertens$13.5K
BUY VWAP 68.1¢·2 fills
paquitomillonarioNaomi Osaka$12.2K
BUY VWAP 74.6¢·1 fill
beeemwNaomi Osaka$10.0K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill
soukaevElise Mertens$10.0K
BUY VWAP 52.3¢·1 fill
hurricanNaomi Osaka$10.0K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.