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UNLV vs. Hawai'i

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 1 minuteLiquidity: $295.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $404.0KEvent: UNLV vs. Hawai'i
54.5¢
UNLV
45.5¢
Hawaii
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:55 trades$170.0K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 21s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hawaii · $28.8K net·3 wallets·$28.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHawaii$73.8K@ 43¢·wr0ngw4yb3tt0r

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Hawaii pressure: $37.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$37.2K
6h
−$107.4K
tracked
$170.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: Hawaii · $28.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest position change: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 25 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Hawaii or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•If UNLV wins, the market will resolve to "UNLV".

•If Hawai'i wins, the market will resolve to "Hawai'i".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 10:00PM ET: If UNLV wins, the market will resolve to "UNLV". If Hawai'i wins, the market will resolve to "Hawai'i". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY UNLV@ 56.0¢53m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Hawaii@ 44.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY UNLV@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor UNLV; negative values favor Hawaii. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHawaii · $37.2K
6hHawaii · $107.4K
24hHawaii · $105.4K

UNLV price VWAP

Volume-weighted UNLV price. Hawaii fills are converted to the complementary UNLV probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.5¢
VWAP 24h56.7¢▼ below by 2.2pp
VWAP 7d56.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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UNLV price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$170.0K
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHawaii$73.8K@ 43.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYUNLV$17.5K@ 57.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

wr0ngw4yb3tt0rHawaii$73.8K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill
quavooHawaii$29.5K
BUY VWAP 43.7¢·25 fills
HomeRunHazardHawaii$20.8K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·5 fills
Sassy-BucketUNLV$17.5K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.