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Spread: SMU (-4.5)

Sports→Settlement: Florida StateLiquidity: $68.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $168.3KEvent: SMU vs. Florida State
0.0¢
SMU payout
100.0¢
Florida State payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:28 trades$79.2K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 240 min agoofficial metadata 214 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSMU$10.9K@ 53¢·mooseborzoi

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Florida State. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-07 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "SMU" if SMU win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Florida State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 7 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "SMU" if SMU win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Florida State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi5 linked markets · $109.3K gross
0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $56.2K gross
Sunny243 linked markets · $50.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Florida State DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $0 → $838 · 9s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor SMU; negative values favor Florida State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSMU · $7.8K
6hSMU · $79.1K
24hSMU · $79.1K

SMU price VWAP

Volume-weighted SMU price. Florida State fills are converted to the complementary SMU probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h44.5¢▼ below by 44.5pp
VWAP 7d44.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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SMU price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$5
70¢
$3
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$33.4K
45¢
$38.0K
40¢
$11
35¢
$24
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$7.8K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSMU$10.9K@ 52.9¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiSMU$69.3K
BUY VWAP 49.3¢·18 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.