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US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 8 daysLiquidity: $187.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $332.9KEvent: US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
21.5¢
Ben Shelton
78.5¢
Carlos Alcaraz
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly18Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%
24h sample:21 trades$93.2K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 52s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBen Shelton$24.0K@ 23¢·0xwise

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$500
6h
−$2.9K
tracked
$93.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 41 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-15 15:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Ben Shelton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Ben Shelton@ 21.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Ben Shelton@ 24.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 78.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ben Shelton; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $500
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $2.9K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $20.3K

Ben Shelton price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ben Shelton price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Ben Shelton probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current21.5¢
VWAP 24h22.1¢▼ below by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d22.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ben Shelton price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$93.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLBen Shelton$10.1K@ 20.3¢
0xwise0x0e60…3bad
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$24.0K@ 23.0¢
0xwise0x0e60…3bad
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$20.0K@ 78.0¢
Cuco840xf3b0…23a1
🐋—about 14 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xwiseBen Shelton$24.0K
BUY VWAP 23.0¢·1 fill
Cuco84Carlos Alcaraz$20.0K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·1 fill
kasongoYeahBen Shelton$11.5K
BUY VWAP 23.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.