PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-09-17?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 36 minutesLiquidity: $622.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $553.1KEvent: Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. AFC Bournemouth
27.5¢
YES
72.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$282.9K tracked30% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata just now
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$57.9K@ 70¢·MiltonFriedmanHongKong

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $35.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$35.4K
6h
−$179.2K
tracked
$282.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $17.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-17 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Real Sociedad de Fútbol wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 17, 2026 If Real Sociedad de Fútbol wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xa962…f7c82 linked markets · $51.0K gross
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $26.6K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $96 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY NO@ 73.0¢7m ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY NO@ 73.0¢27m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 69.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 33.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $35.4K
6hNO · $179.2K
24hNO · $179.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current27.5¢
VWAP 24h30.6¢▼ below by 3.1pp
VWAP 7d30.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$267.0K
25¢
← now
$15.9K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$12.8K@ 27.1¢0xa962…f7c8🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYYES$15.0K@ 30.0¢0xa962…f7c8🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYNO$14.4K@ 69.0¢0x4247…91c4🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$42.4K@ 68.8¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$18.9K@ 69.9¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$14.2K@ 32.5¢
halvanicus0x63cf…e4d0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$22.4K@ 33.2¢
halvanicus0x63cf…e4d0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$57.9K@ 69.9¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNO$25.9K@ 69.1¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNO$35.5K@ 70.0¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-09-17?
45.5¢$242.7Kpriority81Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-17?
84.5¢$1.2Mpriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-17?
47.5¢$705.6Kpriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MIBR (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
51.5¢$601.5Kpriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
10.8¢$524.0Kpriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A
85.5¢$491.9Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$429.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

MiltonFriedmanHongKongNo$180.5K
BUY VWAP 69.6¢·5 fills
halvanicusYes$36.7K
BUY VWAP 32.9¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesNo$17.1K
BUY VWAP 69.4¢·6 fills
0xa962…f7c8Yes$15.0K
BUY VWAP 30.0¢·1 fill
0x4247…91c4No$14.4K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.