PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-17?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $463.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $705.6KEvent: Málaga CF vs. Villarreal CF
45.5¢
YES
54.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets95Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority74Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:119 trades$331.8K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 38s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $78.5K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$86.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$85.0K@ 51¢·MiltonFriedmanHongKong

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $81.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$81.7K
6h
−$244.3K
tracked
$331.8K

5 verified profitable wallets: NO · $78.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 74

Since latest accumulation: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-17 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Villarreal CF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 17, 2026 If Villarreal CF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 51.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 51.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 50.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 50.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $81.7K
6hNO · $244.3K
24hNO · $204.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h48.9¢▼ below by 3.4pp
VWAP 7d48.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$53.5K
45¢
← now
$283.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.8K@ 54.0¢0xa962…f7c8🐋—1 minute ago
BUYNO$41.7K@ 52.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—16 minutes ago
BUYNO$25.0K@ 52.0¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$25.0K@ 51.0¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$85.0K@ 51.0¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 51.0¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$24.0K@ 51.0¢
MiltonFriedmanHongKong0x1c27…b1ba
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 50.0¢
NO.9kami0xbe7e…6d00
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 50.0¢
Elenes0x29b1…f737
🐋—about 21 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-17?
84.5¢$1.2Mpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MIBR (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
55.5¢$601.5Kpriority47Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-09-17?
27.5¢$553.1Kpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
14.1¢$524.0Kpriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A
88.5¢$491.9Kpriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$429.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rennes: Adrian Mannarino vs Matisse Bobichon
53.5¢$414.9Kpriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

MiltonFriedmanHongKongNo$177.5K
BUY VWAP 51.1¢·7 fills
0x076d…8d4cNo$49.8K
BUY VWAP 51.9¢·5 fills
UpTheBluesNo$30.5K
BUY VWAP 51.4¢·11 fills
ElenesYes$21.2K
BUY VWAP 49.8¢·4 fills
NO.9kamiYes$20.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
0xa962…f7c8No$11.8K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.