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Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 39 minutesLiquidity: $34.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $404.6KEvent: Manchester City FC vs. Norwich City FC - More Markets
66.5¢
Manchester City FC
33.5¢
Norwich City FC
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly87Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution78Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:86 trades$180.2K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Manchester City FC · $1.6K net·4 wallets·$22.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNorwich City FC$48.2K@ 55¢·Jsram

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$994
6h
−$104.2K
tracked
$180.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: Manchester City FC · $1.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: -22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-17 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.efl.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Manchester City FC" if Manchester City FC win the game by 3 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Norwich City FC".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming EFL Cup (Carabao Cup) game, scheduled for September 17 at 2:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Manchester City FC" if Manchester City FC win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Norwich City FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on efl.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $17.9K gross
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $7.7K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $3.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Norwich City FC@ 56.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Norwich City FC@ 56.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Norwich City FC@ 56.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +3.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Norwich City FC@ 56.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: Norwich City FC UP 7.5pp · near-book depth $2 → $20 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Manchester City FC; negative values favor Norwich City FC. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hManchester City FC · $994
6hNorwich City FC · $104.2K
24hNorwich City FC · $104.2K

Manchester City FC price VWAP

Volume-weighted Manchester City FC price. Norwich City FC fills are converted to the complementary Manchester City FC probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current66.5¢
VWAP 24h45.2¢▲ above by 21.3pp
VWAP 7d45.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Manchester City FC price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$3.9K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$3.6K
45¢
$140.4K
40¢
$29.3K
35¢
$3.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$99
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNorwich City FC$27.0K@ 55.0¢
Jsram0x8372…5223
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNorwich City FC$20.4K@ 55.0¢
Jsram0x8372…5223
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNorwich City FC$48.2K@ 55.0¢
Jsram0x8372…5223
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNorwich City FC$18.5K@ 54.0¢
Jsram0x8372…5223
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

JsramNorwich City FC$114.1K
BUY VWAP 54.8¢·4 fills
UpTheBluesManchester City FC$11.9K
BUY VWAP 44.9¢·12 fills
PetsViljandistNorwich City FC$11.2K
BUY VWAP 57.1¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.