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US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sorana Cirstea

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $212.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $461.0KEvent: US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Sorana Cirstea
94.0¢
Jessica Pegula
6.0¢
Sorana Cirstea
3.7¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:104 trades$203.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jessica Pegula · $20.9K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$32.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJessica Pegula$50.0K@ 74¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Jessica Pegula pressure: $18.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$18.5K
6h
+$106.6K
tracked
$203.1K

8 verified profitable wallets: Jessica Pegula · $20.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.7¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 77% · priority 59

Since latest large flow: +22.8pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 3.7¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 22.8pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jessica Pegula or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Sorana Cirstea in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Sorana Cirstea. This market will resolve to 'Sorana Cirstea' if Sorana Cirstea advances against Jessica Pegula. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Jessica Pegula@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Jessica Pegula UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $157.9K → $83.5K · 33s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jessica Pegula; negative values favor Sorana Cirstea. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJessica Pegula · $18.5K
6hJessica Pegula · $106.6K
24hJessica Pegula · $108.8K

Jessica Pegula price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jessica Pegula price. Sorana Cirstea fills are converted to the complementary Jessica Pegula probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current94.0¢
VWAP 24h80.0¢▲ above by 14.0pp
VWAP 7d80.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jessica Pegula price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$22.5K
90¢
← now
$25.7K
85¢
$9.4K
80¢
$28.4K
75¢
$2.1K
70¢
$114.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJessica Pegula$13.6K@ 98.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—11 minutes ago
BUYSorana Cirstea$10.0K@ 27.2¢
unknownloser10x5c50…e0c9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJessica Pegula$50.0K@ 73.6¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Jessica Pegula$50.0K
BUY VWAP 73.6¢·1 fill
mooseborzoiJessica Pegula$17.5K
BUY VWAP 91.4¢·4 fills
0F62Jessica Pegula$14.8K
BUY VWAP 97.9¢·2 fills
unknownloser1Sorana Cirstea$10.0K
BUY VWAP 27.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.