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US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Tomas Etcheverry

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $106.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $598.9KEvent: US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Tomas Etcheverry
87.5¢
Alex Michelsen
12.5¢
Tomas Etcheverry
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets47Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:82 trades$234.2K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex Michelsen · $24.1K net·10 wallets(2🐋)·$51.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTomas Etcheverry$30.0K@ 30¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Alex Michelsen SETUP
What the tape says

Alex Michelsen pressure: $17.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$17.5K
6h
+$68.4K
tracked
$234.2K

10 verified profitable wallets: Alex Michelsen · $24.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 56

Since latest market sweep: +8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex Michelsen or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Tomas Etcheverry in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Tomas Etcheverry. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etcheverry' if Tomas Etcheverry advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alex Michelsen9m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Alex Michelsen@ 80.0¢15m ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Alex Michelsen@ 71.0¢50m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Tomas Etcheverry1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Tomas Etcheverry DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $16.3K → $6.3K · 25s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Michelsen; negative values favor Tomas Etcheverry. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Michelsen · $17.5K
6hAlex Michelsen · $68.4K
24hAlex Michelsen · $68.0K

Alex Michelsen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Michelsen price. Tomas Etcheverry fills are converted to the complementary Alex Michelsen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current87.5¢
VWAP 24h75.7¢▲ above by 11.8pp
VWAP 7d75.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Michelsen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$23.4K
80¢
$64.1K
75¢
$11.8K
70¢
$99.1K
65¢
$29.7K
60¢
$0
55¢
$5.9K
50¢
$180
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlex Michelsen$10.6K@ 81.0¢
Ilgato0xbdc3…c0ea
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYTomas Etcheverry$30.0K@ 29.7¢0x78be…bde0🐋—36 minutes ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$10.1K@ 67.0¢
flatbarrel0x6485…a265
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$15.3K@ 84.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTomas Etcheverry$10.0K@ 17.7¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$20.0K@ 74.7¢
soukaev0x7568…2ce1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$11.5K@ 77.0¢
degenfren0x979f…4032
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$10.0K@ 74.0¢
Runemup0x75f2…ff6d
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Tomas Etcheverry$30.0K
BUY VWAP 29.7¢·1 fill
0b1feAlex Michelsen$21.8K
BUY VWAP 82.1¢·4 fills
RunemupAlex Michelsen$20.1K
BUY VWAP 72.5¢·4 fills
soukaevAlex Michelsen$20.0K
BUY VWAP 74.7¢·1 fill
AntblackTomas Etcheverry$19.0K
BUY VWAP 17.8¢·3 fills
degenfrenAlex Michelsen$11.5K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
IlgatoAlex Michelsen$10.6K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·1 fill
flatbarrelAlex Michelsen$10.1K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.