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LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner

● quote 12s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $554.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $728.8KEvent: LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
100.0¢
G2 Esports
0.1¢
Karmine Corp
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection38Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets60Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 80%💡 22 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:239 trades$320.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 60%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 45s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Karmine Corp · $82.1K net·22 wallets(1🐋)·$136.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLG2 Esports$20.0K@ 100¢·ColinHe

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Karmine Corp pressure: $122.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$122.2K
6h
−$121.8K
tracked
$320.8K

22 verified profitable wallets: Karmine Corp · $82.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 80% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +35.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 35.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Karmine Corp or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 4 against Karmine Corp.

•This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win Game 4 against G2 Esports.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between G2 Esports and Karmine Corp in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 4 against Karmine Corp. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win Game 4 against G2 Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 20, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e4 linked markets · $171.4K gross
ColinHe4 linked markets · $73.0K gross
fkcvffcjt5 linked markets · $55.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY G2 Esports23m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY G2 Esports@ 65.0¢29m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Karmine Corp@ 62.0¢38m ago
15m INVALIDATED -52.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Karmine Corp@ 62.0¢38m ago
15m INVALIDATED -52.0pp
Latest book event: G2 Esports DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $182 → $223 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor G2 Esports; negative values favor Karmine Corp. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKarmine Corp · $122.2K
6hKarmine Corp · $121.8K
24hKarmine Corp · $121.8K

G2 Esports price VWAP

Volume-weighted G2 Esports price. Karmine Corp fills are converted to the complementary G2 Esports probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h65.9¢▲ above by 34.0pp
VWAP 7d65.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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G2 Esports price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$101.3K
90¢
$5.0K
85¢
$2.2K
80¢
$1.3K
75¢
$4.0K
70¢
$6.8K
65¢
$11.9K
60¢
$3.6K
55¢
$10.6K
50¢
$40.9K
45¢
$51.7K
40¢
$62.0K
35¢
$18.4K
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLG2 Esports$20.0K@ 99.9¢
ColinHe0x6842…20d0
🐋—12 minutes ago
SELLG2 Esports$14.0K@ 99.9¢
five51200xc1c7…f0a7
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYKarmine Corp$12.6K@ 62.9¢
ChonkyChocolateCake0xf23c…9f81
🐋—37 minutes ago
BUYKarmine Corp$18.7K@ 53.3¢0xf201…527e🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf201…527eKarmine Corp$81.4K
BUY VWAP 51.8¢·21 fills
RoshanMVPG2 Esports$19.1K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·3 fills
ChonkyChocolateCakeKarmine Corp$12.6K
BUY VWAP 62.9¢·1 fill
fkcvffcjtG2 Esports$11.1K
BUY VWAP 64.6¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.