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Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs MOUZ (+2.5)

● quote 17s ago
Sports→Closes: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $59.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $49.7KEvent: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs
20.5¢
Spirit
79.5¢
MOUZ
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly84Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets49Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$14.7K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MOUZ · $7.1K net·3 wallets·$14.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ$4.0K@ 80¢·0x29b5…cc6c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$360
6h
−$4.3K
tracked
$14.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: MOUZ · $7.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Less than 9h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 3 or more maps than MOUZ in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "MOUZ".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand final match between Spirit and MOUZ in the BLAST Open Porto Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 3 or more maps than MOUZ in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "MOUZ". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 20, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Diabolical-Prize2 linked markets · $110.3K gross
0x29b5…cc6c3 linked markets · $60.0K gross
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $6.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor MOUZ. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMOUZ · $360
6hMOUZ · $4.3K
24hMOUZ · $7.4K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. MOUZ fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.5¢
VWAP 24h21.7¢▼ below by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d21.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$3.6K
20¢
← now
$11.1K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.