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Seville: Inaki Montes vs Raul Brancaccio

● quote 19s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $175.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $154.5KEvent: Seville: Inaki Montes vs Raul Brancaccio
49.5¢
YES
50.5¢
Raul Brancaccio
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$71.6K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 92 min agoofficial metadata 33s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Raul Brancaccio · $42.7K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$42.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRaul Brancaccio$10.2K@ 51¢·RN1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$56.1K
tracked
$71.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Raul Brancaccio · $42.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 92 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-14 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Inaki Montes and Raul Brancaccio in the Seville, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Inaki Montes' if Inaki Montes advances against Raul Brancaccio. This market will resolve to 'Raul Brancaccio' if Raul Brancaccio advances against Inaki Montes. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Raul Brancaccio@ 51.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor Raul Brancaccio. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hRaul Brancaccio · $56.1K
24hRaul Brancaccio · $56.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. Raul Brancaccio fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h49.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d49.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$7.7K
45¢
← now
$63.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRaul Brancaccio$10.2K@ 51.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRaul Brancaccio$10.2K@ 51.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRaul Brancaccio$10.2K@ 51.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RN1Raul Brancaccio$37.6K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.