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Genoa: Valerio Aboian vs Luca Castagnola

Sports→Settlement: Valerio AboianLiquidity: $94.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $108.4KEvent: Genoa: Valerio Aboian vs Luca Castagnola
100.0¢
Valerio Aboian payout
0.0¢
Luca Castagnola payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:26 trades$14.0K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 41 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Luca Castagnola · $1.0K net·7 wallets·$8.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuca Castagnola$3.4K@ 27¢·Gambler661

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Valerio Aboian. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-13 11:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valerio Aboian and Luca Castagnola in the Genoa, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valerio Aboian' if Valerio Aboian advances against Luca Castagnola. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castagnola' if Luca Castagnola advances against Valerio Aboian. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Luca Castagnola UP 9.0pp · near-book depth $4.2K → $10.5K · 41s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valerio Aboian; negative values favor Luca Castagnola. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hValerio Aboian · $3.2K
6hValerio Aboian · $1.4K
24hValerio Aboian · $1.4K

Valerio Aboian price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valerio Aboian price. Luca Castagnola fills are converted to the complementary Valerio Aboian probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h78.3¢▲ above by 21.7pp
VWAP 7d78.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valerio Aboian price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$10
80¢
$0
75¢
$12
70¢
$10.7K
65¢
$1
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.