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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Playoffs

● quote 16s ago
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $26.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $118.5KEvent: Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Playoffs
45.5¢
100 Thieves
54.5¢
LOUD
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution70Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:39 trades$30.8K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 39s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:100 Thieves · $804 net·2 wallets·$823 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLOUD$8.1K@ 33¢·quavoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

100 Thieves pressure: $4.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.3K
6h
+$5.9K
tracked
$30.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: 100 Thieves · $804 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from 100 Thieves or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against LOUD.

•This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD win the match against 100 Thieves.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between 100 Thieves and LOUD in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against LOUD. This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD win the match against 100 Thieves. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 20, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 6, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: 100 Thieves DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $332 → $3.3K · 49s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 100 Thieves; negative values favor LOUD. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h100 Thieves · $4.3K
6h100 Thieves · $5.9K
24hLOUD · $2.4K

100 Thieves price VWAP

Volume-weighted 100 Thieves price. LOUD fills are converted to the complementary 100 Thieves probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h68.0¢▼ below by 22.4pp
VWAP 7d68.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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100 Thieves price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$24
65¢
$30.7K
60¢
$17
55¢
$0
50¢
$20
45¢
← now
$94
40¢
$14
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooLOUD$12.5K
BUY VWAP 33.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.