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US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $154.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp
56.5¢
Arthur Gea
43.5¢
Botic van de Zandschulp
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets85Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:143 trades$448.8K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Gea · $155.2K net·16 wallets(2🐋)·$182.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Gea$47.5K@ 40¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Arthur Gea pressure: $36.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$36.0K
6h
−$5.3K
tracked
$448.8K

16 verified profitable wallets: Arthur Gea · $155.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 66

Since latest liquidity absorption: +18.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 18.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Arthur Gea or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-14 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Gea and Botic van de Zandschulp in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Botic van de Zandschulp. This market will resolve to 'Botic van de Zandschulp' if Botic van de Zandschulp advances against Arthur Gea. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Arthur Gea3m ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Arthur Gea@ 39.0¢9m ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Botic van de Zandschulp@ 62.0¢9m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Gea@ 37.0¢18m ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.0pp
Latest book event: Arthur Gea UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $137 → $27.8K · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Gea; negative values favor Botic van de Zandschulp. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Gea · $36.0K
6hBotic van de Zandschulp · $5.3K
24hArthur Gea · $110.6K

Arthur Gea price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Gea price. Botic van de Zandschulp fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Gea probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h42.6¢▲ above by 13.9pp
VWAP 7d42.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Gea price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$32.3K
50¢
$51.4K
45¢
$21.6K
40¢
$108.1K
35¢
$235.2K
30¢
$120
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArthur Gea$47.5K@ 40.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYBotic van de Zandschulp$10.0K@ 62.3¢
soukaev0x7568…2ce1
🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYBotic van de Zandschulp$20.0K@ 49.5¢0x760f…326a🐋—26 minutes ago
BUYBotic van de Zandschulp$20.4K@ 46.5¢
0xwise0x0e60…3bad
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYArthur Gea$17.0K@ 58.1¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—33 minutes ago
BUYBotic van de Zandschulp$15.0K@ 61.5¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYBotic van de Zandschulp$15.0K@ 60.4¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYBotic van de Zandschulp$26.9K@ 60.3¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Gea$10.0K@ 49.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Gea$14.5K@ 41.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Gea$12.3K@ 39.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYArthur Gea$39.0K@ 39.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYArthur Gea$39.0K@ 39.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYArthur Gea$10.4K@ 39.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Arthur Gea$137.8K
BUY VWAP 39.3¢·4 fills
0x78be…bde0Botic van de Zandschulp$60.0K
BUY VWAP 60.7¢·4 fills
AntblackArthur Gea$26.6K
BUY VWAP 48.8¢·2 fills
0x3dfb…abafArthur Gea$24.0K
BUY VWAP 39.3¢·3 fills
0xwiseBotic van de Zandschulp$20.4K
BUY VWAP 46.5¢·1 fill
0x760f…326aBotic van de Zandschulp$20.0K
BUY VWAP 49.5¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462Arthur Gea$15.0K
BUY VWAP 46.4¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Arthur Gea$13.1K
BUY VWAP 41.6¢·2 fills
soukaevBotic van de Zandschulp$10.0K
BUY VWAP 62.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.