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Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $124.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $116.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
42.5¢
G2
57.5¢
Astralis
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 91%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$76.5K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 66%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYG2$21.0K@ 42¢·Diabolical-Prize

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW G2 SETUP
What the tape says

G2 pressure: $16.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$16.4K
6h
+$17.4K
tracked
$76.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: G2 · $23.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 91% · priority 57

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from G2 or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-08 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "G2" if G2 wins 2 or more maps than Astralis in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Astralis".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between G2 and Astralis in the FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A, initially scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 6:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "G2" if G2 wins 2 or more maps than Astralis in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Astralis". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 8, 2026 at 6:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Diabolical-Prize2 linked markets · $66.5K gross
0x29b5…cc6c2 linked markets · $56.4K gross
TheMafiaa2 linked markets · $4.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY G2@ 42.0¢6m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY G2@ 42.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor G2; negative values favor Astralis. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hG2 · $16.4K
6hG2 · $17.4K
24hG2 · $33.5K

G2 price VWAP

Volume-weighted G2 price. Astralis fills are converted to the complementary G2 probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h41.7¢▲ above by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d41.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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G2 price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$76.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYG2$21.0K@ 42.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—8 minutes ago
BUYAstralis$13.1K@ 58.0¢
TAIWANNUMBERONE0xe015…6ffd
🐋—13 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x29b5…cc6cG2$23.3K
BUY VWAP 41.1¢·9 fills
Diabolical-PrizeG2$21.0K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
TAIWANNUMBERONEAstralis$13.1K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.