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Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?

● quote 1 min ago
Politics→Closes: 22 daysLiquidity: $45.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $71.9KEvent: Trump renames New Mexico to New America by...?
4.5¢
YES
95.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets20Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$46.9K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 65%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 74 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.9K net·2 wallets·$6.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$10.6K@ 96¢·Bertapotamous

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$15.7K
tracked
$46.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 74 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, presidential memorandum, or proclamation, signs any bill into law, or otherwise formally directs the federal government to rename New Mexico to "New America" or any other name including "America" by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, presidential memorandum, or proclamation, signs any bill into law, or otherwise formally directs the federal government to rename New Mexico to "New America" or any other name including "America" by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A formal Trump administration directive to rename New Mexico, including through the U.S. Board on Geographic Names, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "rename" includes directing the federal government to use the new name when referring to the state, regardless of whether the state's legal name is changed. Statements, social media posts, or expressions of support for renaming New Mexico will not qualify unless accompanied by a qualifying formal action or directive. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $15.7K
24hNO · $42.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.5¢
VWAP 24h7.3¢▼ below by 2.8pp
VWAP 7d7.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$15.9K
5¢
$20.4K
0¢
← now
$10.6K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.6K@ 96.0¢
Bertapotamous0x134a…9e42
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BertapotamousNo$11.8K
BUY VWAP 95.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.