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Spread: Missouri (-4.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $87.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $102.2KEvent: Missouri vs. Kansas
58.5¢
Missouri
41.5¢
Kansas
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection63Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$48.0K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKansas$20.9K@ 51¢·bands1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Kansas SETUP
What the tape says

Kansas pressure: $30.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$30.3K
6h
−$27.9K
tracked
$48.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: Kansas · $6.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 69

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Kansas or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-12 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Missouri" if Missouri win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kansas".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 11 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Missouri" if Missouri win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kansas". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ic4cream2 linked markets · $43.2K gross
mooseborzoi3 linked markets · $18.8K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $13.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Missouri; negative values favor Kansas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKansas · $30.3K
6hKansas · $27.9K
24hKansas · $27.9K

Missouri price VWAP

Volume-weighted Missouri price. Kansas fills are converted to the complementary Missouri probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h49.7¢▲ above by 8.8pp
VWAP 7d49.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Missouri price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$0
50¢
$16.6K
45¢
$31.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKansas$10.5K@ 51.0¢
bands10xa080…234f
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKansas$20.9K@ 51.0¢
bands10xa080…234f
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bands1Kansas$31.4K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.