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Spread: Giants (-3.5)

● quote 26 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $15.2KEvent: Saints vs. Giants
38.5¢
Giants
61.5¢
Saints
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$9.2K trackedsource coverage 61%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 96 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSaints$7.8K@ 62¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.4K
tracked
$9.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: Saints · $7.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 26 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 96 minutes old.
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Giants" if the Giants win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Saints".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Saints and Giants, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Giants" if the Giants win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Saints". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $12.6K gross
SunlineTicker2 linked markets · $2.5K gross
Forecastication22 linked markets · $101 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Giants; negative values favor Saints. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGiants · $0
6hSaints · $1.4K
24hSaints · $9.2K

Giants price VWAP

Volume-weighted Giants price. Saints fills are converted to the complementary Giants probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current38.5¢
VWAP 24h38.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d38.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Giants price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$9.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Saints vs. Giants
50.5¢$42.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Saints (-3.5)
36.5¢$13.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Saints vs. Giants: O/U 46.5
48.5¢$1.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Giants (-4.5)
35.0¢$373priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Saints (-2.5)
44.5¢$119priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Saints vs. Giants: O/U 44.5
55.5¢$88priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Giants (-1.5)
47.5¢$76priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Giants (-2.5)
45.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.