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Bitcoin Up or Down on September 10?

Crypto→Settlement: DownLiquidity: $51.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $141.9KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 10?
0.0¢
Up payout
100.0¢
Down payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:87 trades$22.3K trackedsource coverage 16%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 63 min agoofficial metadata 49 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Up · $143 net·3 wallets·$1.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDown$4.2K@ 97¢·hqcake03

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Down. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-10 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 10 '26 12:00 ET candle.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 10 '26 12:00 ET candle.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Down DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $292 → $645 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUp · $1.1K
6hDown · $9.5K
24hDown · $13.4K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h13.1¢▼ below by 13.1pp
VWAP 7d13.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.7K
40¢
$2.2K
35¢
$198
30¢
$550
25¢
$464
20¢
$2.6K
15¢
$159
10¢
$5
5¢
$1.3K
0¢
← now
$13.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.