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Spread: SF (-12.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 3 daysLiquidity: $84.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $55.8KEvent: Dolphins vs. 49ers
51.5¢
SF
48.5¢
MIA
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$26.1K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MIA · $9.8K net·2 wallets·$12.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSF$10.5K@ 50¢·Painfulvoid

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW SF SETUP
What the tape says

SF pressure: $1.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.4K
6h
+$11.9K
tracked
$26.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: MIA · $9.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 56

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from SF or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "SF" if the SF win the game by 13 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "MIA".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between MIA and SF, scheduled for September 20 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "SF" if the SF win the game by 13 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "MIA". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor SF; negative values favor MIA. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSF · $1.4K
6hSF · $11.9K
24hSF · $3.7K

SF price VWAP

Volume-weighted SF price. MIA fills are converted to the complementary SF probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h50.4¢▲ above by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d50.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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SF price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$26.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSF$10.5K@ 50.4¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HomeRunHazardMIA$11.2K
BUY VWAP 49.7¢·3 fills
PainfulvoidSF$10.5K
BUY VWAP 50.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.