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Seville: Pavel Lagutin vs Max Alcala Gurri

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $1.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $577.6KEvent: Seville: Pavel Lagutin vs Max Alcala Gurri
0.1¢
Pavel Lagutin
100.0¢
Max Alcala Gurri
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:143 trades$227.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Max Alcala Gurri · $41.5K net·12 wallets·$91.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPavel Lagutin$15.0K@ 39¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Max Alcala Gurri pressure: $14.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$14.3K
6h
−$38.5K
tracked
$227.5K

12 verified profitable wallets: Max Alcala Gurri · $41.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -55.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Max Alcala Gurri or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-17 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Pavel Lagutin and Max Alcala Gurri in the Seville, originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pavel Lagutin' if Pavel Lagutin advances against Max Alcala Gurri. This market will resolve to 'Max Alcala Gurri' if Max Alcala Gurri advances against Pavel Lagutin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Pavel Lagutin@ 56.0¢36m ago
15m INVALIDATED -29.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Pavel Lagutin1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Pavel Lagutin@ 39.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -22.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp
Latest book event: Max Alcala Gurri UP 11.0pp · near-book depth $183 → $240 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pavel Lagutin; negative values favor Max Alcala Gurri. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMax Alcala Gurri · $14.3K
6hMax Alcala Gurri · $38.5K
24hMax Alcala Gurri · $38.5K

Pavel Lagutin price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pavel Lagutin price. Max Alcala Gurri fills are converted to the complementary Pavel Lagutin probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h39.0¢▼ below by 39.0pp
VWAP 7d39.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Pavel Lagutin price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$8.5K
65¢
$17.2K
60¢
$133
55¢
$41.4K
50¢
$8.3K
45¢
$21.6K
40¢
$24.9K
35¢
$30.8K
30¢
$7.7K
25¢
$10.2K
20¢
$6.7K
15¢
$13.6K
10¢
$1.4K
5¢
$10.1K
0¢
← now
$24.9K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMax Alcala Gurri$13.2K@ 97.7¢
hihhe0x790e…55d6
🐋—15 minutes ago
BUYPavel Lagutin$15.0K@ 38.5¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMax Alcala Gurri$14.4K@ 32.6¢
xabidaking0x3f98…0aa1
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Pavel Lagutin$27.8K
BUY VWAP 41.8¢·3 fills
xabidakingMax Alcala Gurri$14.4K
BUY VWAP 32.6¢·1 fill
Gambler661Pavel Lagutin$14.1K
BUY VWAP 49.7¢·3 fills
hihheMax Alcala Gurri$13.2K
BUY VWAP 97.7¢·1 fill
0x076d…8d4cMax Alcala Gurri$12.4K
BUY VWAP 52.9¢·5 fills
0xb595…5922Max Alcala Gurri$11.3K
BUY VWAP 96.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.