Will LYON win Worlds 2026?

● quote 20 min ago

Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 1 monthLiquidity: $74.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $62.7KEvent: Worlds 2026: Winner

Indicative prices · 20 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.6¢

YES

99.4¢

0.2¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:4 trades$1.6K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.4K net·3 wallets·$1.4K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$1.3K@ 99¢·Bigggggggg

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$290

tracked

$1.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 20 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 32 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-11-29 04:59 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: https://lolesports.com

Outcome meaning

•If this tournament is postponed after November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 League of Legends World Championship (Worlds 2026), currently scheduled for October 15 to November 14, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Riot Games, via the LoL Esports website (https://lolesports.com). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/World_Championship/2026) may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

randomrandomrandom2 linked markets · $30.6K gross

Komo4312 linked markets · $15.2K gross

0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $4.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hNO · $290

6hNO · $290

24hNO · $1.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.6¢

VWAP 24h1.32¢▼ below by 0.7pp

VWAP 7d1.32¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

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← now

$1.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.