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Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $305.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $234.6KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

36.5¢
Cameron Norrie
63.5¢
Daniil Medvedev
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets70Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:92 trades$126.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 45s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $21.7K net·6 wallets·$30.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$20.0K@ 81¢·austr

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Daniil Medvedev SETUP
What the tape says

Daniil Medvedev pressure: $23.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$23.2K
6h
−$52.3K
tracked
$126.7K

6 verified profitable wallets: Daniil Medvedev · $21.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 66

Since latest large flow: -17.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Daniil Medvedev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Daniil Medvedev in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave232 linked markets · $218 gross
0xe1f4…f5a02 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 81.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -24.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 82.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Daniil Medvedev UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $88.5K → $73.8K · 37s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cameron Norrie; negative values favor Daniil Medvedev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $23.2K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $52.3K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $73.5K

Cameron Norrie price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cameron Norrie price. Daniil Medvedev fills are converted to the complementary Cameron Norrie probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h31.53¢▲ above by 5.0pp
VWAP 7d31.53¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cameron Norrie price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$24.8K
40¢
$26.7K
35¢
← now
$2.8K
30¢
$17.0K
25¢
$2.1K
20¢
$9.7K
15¢
$43.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDaniil Medvedev$20.0K@ 80.9¢
austr0x1245…e0af
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Cameron Norrie (+1.5)
0.5¢$3.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev
99.95¢$798priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-4.5) vs Cameron Norrie (+4.5)
15.0¢$669priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5
42.0¢$50priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.05¢$50priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5
79.5¢$46priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cameron Norrie vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
69.0¢$14priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev
32.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

austrDaniil Medvedev$29.9K
BUY VWAP 75.08¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026Daniil Medvedev$21.0K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.