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Spread: FC Barcelona (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 24 minutesLiquidity: $268.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $155.1KEvent: FC Barcelona vs. Real Racing Club - More Markets
47.5¢
FC Barcelona
52.5¢
Real Racing Club
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets18Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:43 trades$66.6K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Real Racing Club · $5.8K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$32.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYReal Racing Club$10.9K@ 54¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

FC Barcelona pressure: $8.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.7K
6h
−$7.1K
tracked
$66.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: Real Racing Club · $5.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 51

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from FC Barcelona or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FC Barcelona" if FC Barcelona win the game by 4 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Racing Club".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for September 16 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Barcelona" if FC Barcelona win the game by 4 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Racing Club". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Di88medes2 linked markets · $7.9K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $2.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FC Barcelona; negative values favor Real Racing Club. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFC Barcelona · $8.7K
6hReal Racing Club · $7.1K
24hReal Racing Club · $7.0K

FC Barcelona price VWAP

Volume-weighted FC Barcelona price. Real Racing Club fills are converted to the complementary FC Barcelona probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h45.9¢▲ above by 1.6pp
VWAP 7d45.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FC Barcelona price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$46.0K
40¢
$20.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYReal Racing Club$10.0K@ 57.2¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYReal Racing Club$10.9K@ 54.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)
67.5¢$78.7Kpriority88Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Real Racing Club (-1.5)
0.3¢$122priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16?
92.5¢$1.4Mpriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
5.5¢$559.5Kpriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
28.5¢$481.5Kpriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$430.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Real Racing Club$18.9K
BUY VWAP 53.1¢·3 fills
0xf559…f462Real Racing Club$10.0K
BUY VWAP 57.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.