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Istanbul 3: Francesco Maestrelli vs Maks Kasnikowski

Sports→Settlement: Maks KasnikowskiLiquidity: $183.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $240.9KEvent: Istanbul 3: Francesco Maestrelli vs Maks Kasnikowski
0.0¢
Francesco Maestrelli payout
100.0¢
Maks Kasnikowski payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:36 trades$92.4K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 37 min agoofficial metadata 38s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Francesco Maestrelli · $34.5K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$34.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMaks Kasnikowski$12.8K@ 84¢·raybanman

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Maks Kasnikowski. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-18 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Maestrelli and Maks Kasnikowski in the Istanbul 3, originally scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Maks Kasnikowski. This market will resolve to 'Maks Kasnikowski' if Maks Kasnikowski advances against Francesco Maestrelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Francesco Maestrelli@ 44.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY Francesco Maestrelli@ 41.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Maks Kasnikowski@ 59.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Maks Kasnikowski UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $19.6K → $26.2K · 23s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francesco Maestrelli; negative values favor Maks Kasnikowski. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancesco Maestrelli · $6.7K
6hMaks Kasnikowski · $2.3K
24hMaks Kasnikowski · $2.3K

Francesco Maestrelli price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francesco Maestrelli price. Maks Kasnikowski fills are converted to the complementary Francesco Maestrelli probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h25.1¢▼ below by 25.1pp
VWAP 7d25.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francesco Maestrelli price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$12.2K
40¢
$14.1K
35¢
$3.7K
30¢
$38
25¢
$12.6K
20¢
$1
15¢
$23.5K
10¢
$22.6K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$3.7K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrancesco Maestrelli$10.0K@ 45.1¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMaks Kasnikowski$10.8K@ 86.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMaks Kasnikowski$10.5K@ 85.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMaks Kasnikowski$12.8K@ 84.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

raybanmanMaks Kasnikowski$43.1K
BUY VWAP 82.7¢·6 fills
0x78be…bde0Francesco Maestrelli$32.6K
BUY VWAP 36.3¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.