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Spread: 49ers (-13.5)

Sports→Settlement: 49ersLiquidity: $140.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $655.5KEvent: Dolphins vs. 49ers
100.0¢
49ers payout
0.0¢
Dolphins payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:18 trades$320.9K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 62 min agoofficial metadata 30 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDolphins$148.3K@ 53¢·Tiger200

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome 49ers. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 14 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Dolphins and 49ers, scheduled for September 20 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 14 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $199.0K gross
quavoo4 linked markets · $64.3K gross
maz262 linked markets · $43.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Dolphins@ 53.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Dolphins@ 52.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h INVALIDATED -24.0pp
Latest book event: 49ers UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $7.9K → $2.2K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 49ers; negative values favor Dolphins. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h49ers · $161
6hDolphins · $289.4K
24hDolphins · $287.3K

49ers price VWAP

Volume-weighted 49ers price. Dolphins fills are converted to the complementary 49ers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h47.6¢▲ above by 52.4pp
VWAP 7d47.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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49ers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$161
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$6
70¢
$0
65¢
$2
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$320.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDolphins$130.1K@ 52.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYDolphins$148.3K@ 53.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYDolphins$20.7K@ 52.0¢
ratatatatatatatataaaa0x7f8e…4487
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Tiger200Dolphins$278.4K
BUY VWAP 52.5¢·2 fills
ratatatatatatatataaaaDolphins$20.7K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.