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USA vs. France

● quote 13s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $65.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $211.6KEvent: USA vs. France
99.9¢
USA
0.2¢
France
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly8Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$49.9K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 37 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpain/USA$9.8K@ 97¢·ID4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$114
6h
+$25.9K
tracked
$49.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: USA · $250 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 37 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.fiba.basketball/en/events/fiba-womens-basketball-world-cup-2026
Outcome meaning

•If the USA win, the market will resolve to "USA".

•If the France win, the market will resolve to "France".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming FIBA Women's World Cup game, scheduled for September 13 at 2:00 PM ET: If the USA win, the market will resolve to "USA". If the France win, the market will resolve to "France". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Recent definition/status changes
RULES CHANGED · 2h ago
RULES CHANGED · 3h ago
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 3h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET STATE2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET STATE3h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET STATE3h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: USA UP 7.3pp · near-book depth $7.6K → $8.5K · 39s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor USA; negative values favor France. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrance · $114
6hUSA · $25.9K
24hUSA · $31.8K

USA price VWAP

Volume-weighted USA price. France fills are converted to the complementary USA probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h82.2¢▲ above by 17.7pp
VWAP 7d82.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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USA price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$16.9K
90¢
$2.7K
85¢
$2.1K
80¢
$100
75¢
$13.3K
70¢
$4.0K
65¢
$8.4K
60¢
$92
55¢
$5
50¢
$2.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$11
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ID4Spain/USA$11.1K
BUY VWAP 94.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.