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Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays

● quote 16s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $77.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $238.9KEvent: Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
0.6¢
Athletics
99.4¢
Tampa Bay Rays
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:54 trades$91.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tampa Bay Rays · $39.4K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$42.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays$29.1K@ 71¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Athletics pressure: $2.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.0K
6h
−$29.6K
tracked
$91.1K

8 verified profitable wallets: Tampa Bay Rays · $39.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +28.6pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 28.6pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Athletics or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-24 17:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for September 17 at 1:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $6.2K gross
1winstreak12 linked markets · $4.7K gross
pups102 linked markets · $16 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 71.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -0.3pp1h STALLED -2.6pp
Latest book event: Athletics DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $1 → $27 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Athletics; negative values favor Tampa Bay Rays. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAthletics · $2.0K
6hTampa Bay Rays · $29.6K
24hTampa Bay Rays · $35.3K

Athletics price VWAP

Volume-weighted Athletics price. Tampa Bay Rays fills are converted to the complementary Athletics probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.6¢
VWAP 24h27.7¢▼ below by 27.1pp
VWAP 7d27.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Athletics price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$26
30¢
$12.5K
25¢
$71.3K
20¢
$3.1K
15¢
$0
10¢
$1.1K
5¢
$13
0¢
← now
$3.0K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays$29.1K@ 71.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Tampa Bay Rays$29.1K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.