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Istanbul 3: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jay Dylan Friend

Sports→Settlement: Jay Dylan FriendLiquidity: $620.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $142.4KEvent: Istanbul 3: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jay Dylan Friend
0.0¢
Maks Kasnikowski payout
100.0¢
Jay Dylan Friend payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:61 trades$49.7K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 100 min agoofficial metadata 82 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Maks Kasnikowski · $31.1K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$34.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMaks Kasnikowski$13.0K@ 49¢·0x78be…bde0

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Jay Dylan Friend. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-19 09:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Maks Kasnikowski and Jay Dylan Friend in the Istanbul 3, originally scheduled for September 12, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maks Kasnikowski' if Maks Kasnikowski advances against Jay Dylan Friend. This market will resolve to 'Jay Dylan Friend' if Jay Dylan Friend advances against Maks Kasnikowski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Maks Kasnikowski@ 63.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -27.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Maks Kasnikowski DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $6.5K → $610 · 19s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Maks Kasnikowski; negative values favor Jay Dylan Friend. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJay Dylan Friend · $739
6hMaks Kasnikowski · $38.5K
24hMaks Kasnikowski · $38.5K

Maks Kasnikowski price VWAP

Volume-weighted Maks Kasnikowski price. Jay Dylan Friend fills are converted to the complementary Maks Kasnikowski probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h48.3¢▼ below by 48.3pp
VWAP 7d48.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Maks Kasnikowski price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$12.0K
50¢
$14.1K
45¢
$15.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$39
30¢
$78
25¢
$6.8K
20¢
$790
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$5
0¢
← now
$249

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMaks Kasnikowski$13.0K@ 49.5¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMaks Kasnikowski$10.0K@ 56.8¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMaks Kasnikowski$10.0K@ 54.1¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Maks Kasnikowski$33.0K
BUY VWAP 52.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.