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Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?

Geopolitics→ConflictCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $40.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $106.3KEvent: Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

Indicative prices · 862 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

5.5¢
YES
96.1¢
NO
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:40 trades$61.9K trackedsource coverage 58%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 863 min agoofficial metadata 860 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $36.4K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$40.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$11.1K@ 58¢·davisb12

Decision read paused

Market status is DISPUTED. No executable setup is shown until trading is open again.

DISPUTED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
DISPUTED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

•In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Saudi Arabia is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Saudi Arabia, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Saudi Arabia is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.1pp · near-book depth $445 → $451 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market disputed · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $59.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current5.5¢
VWAP 24h7.21¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d19.73¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$1.5K
55¢
$7.8K
50¢
$50
45¢
$3.2K
40¢
$11.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.2K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$3.6K
5¢
← now
$45.5K
0¢
$11.4K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.1K@ 57.74¢
davisb120xdf17…97d1
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

davisb12No$37.4K
BUY VWAP 79.03¢·7 fills
0x84dc…92cbNo$10.7K
BUY VWAP 93.77¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.