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Türkiye vs. France: O/U 3.5

Sports→Settlement: UnderLiquidity: $389.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $402.1KEvent: Türkiye vs. France - More Markets
0.0¢
Over payout
100.0¢
Under payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $51.2K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$51.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$38.8K@ 48¢·0x076d…8d4c

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Under. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-25 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if Türkiye and France combine to score 4 or more goals in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Türkiye and France, scheduled for September 25 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Türkiye and France combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Flaznorp5 linked markets · $87.5K gross
UpTheBlues5 linked markets · $56.7K gross
Antblack2 linked markets · $16.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 51.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +23.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 49.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +5.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 52.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hUnder · $14.9K
24hUnder · $34.9K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h49.1¢▼ below by 49.1pp
VWAP 7d49.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$133.3K
45¢
$42.6K
40¢
$6
35¢
$1.6K
30¢
$32
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$19
10¢
$1.9K
5¢
$5
0¢
← now
$4.1K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$13.2K@ 51.0¢
PendulumExchange0xf438…9559
🐋—6 days ago
BUYUnder$17.0K@ 49.9¢
PendulumExchange0xf438…9559
🐋—6 days ago
BUYUnder$38.8K@ 48.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—6 days ago
BUYOver$12.8K@ 52.0¢
PetsViljandist0x6e9f…0eae
🐋—6 days ago
BUYOver$17.7K@ 52.0¢
calamansidios0x8606…db26
🐋—6 days ago
BUYOver$10.3K@ 51.0¢
Thesisters20xef92…da7f
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cUnder$38.8K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
PendulumExchangeUnder$30.2K
BUY VWAP 50.4¢·2 fills
calamansidiosOver$17.7K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
PetsViljandistOver$12.8K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
us391Under$11.1K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·4 fills
Thesisters2Over$10.3K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.