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Map Handicap: LOUD (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $307.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $199.6KEvent: Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B
99.9¢
LOUD
3.0¢
EDward Gaming
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$98.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:EDward Gaming · $28.6K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$28.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLOUD$20.0K@ 44¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

EDward Gaming pressure: $12.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.3K
6h
−$45.8K
tracked
$98.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: EDward Gaming · $28.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +55.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 55.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from EDward Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD wins 2 or more maps than EDward Gaming in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "EDward Gaming".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant match between LOUD and EDward Gaming in the VCT Champions Group B, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD wins 2 or more maps than EDward Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "EDward Gaming". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 26, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $40.4K gross
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $27.8K gross
ggrrb3 linked markets · $23.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY LOUD2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY LOUD@ 45.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +11.0pp1h CONFIRMED +30.0pp
Latest book event: LOUD UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $817 → $993 · 45s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LOUD; negative values favor EDward Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hEDward Gaming · $12.3K
6hEDward Gaming · $45.8K
24hEDward Gaming · $45.8K

LOUD price VWAP

Volume-weighted LOUD price. EDward Gaming fills are converted to the complementary LOUD probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h51.1¢▲ above by 48.8pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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LOUD price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$12.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2
60¢
$2
55¢
$20
50¢
$25
45¢
$5.7K
40¢
$80.5K
35¢
$4
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYEDward Gaming$11.2K@ 56.0¢
Zywoo1230xc44f…d49f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLOUD$20.0K@ 44.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYEDward Gaming$14.6K@ 56.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111LOUD$20.0K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill
0x076d…8d4cEDward Gaming$14.6K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
Zywoo123EDward Gaming$11.2K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.