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Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $132.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $462.3KEvent: Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
58.5¢
Kansas City Royals
41.5¢
Pittsburgh Pirates
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:103 trades$220.7K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 12s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Pittsburgh Pirates · $27.4K net·12 wallets(2🐋)·$83.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPittsburgh Pirates$32.5K@ 65¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Kansas City Royals pressure: $19.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$19.2K
6h
−$117.8K
tracked
$220.7K

12 verified profitable wallets: Pittsburgh Pirates · $27.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 52

Since latest accumulation: -8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Kansas City Royals or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-25 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for September 18 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xbbf3…aa3a2 linked markets · $11.6K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $9.6K gross
Flaznorp2 linked markets · $180 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Pittsburgh Pirates@ 50.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Pittsburgh Pirates@ 50.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Pittsburgh Pirates@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -32.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Pittsburgh Pirates@ 64.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: Kansas City Royals UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $19.7K → $4 · 32s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Kansas City Royals; negative values favor Pittsburgh Pirates. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKansas City Royals · $19.2K
6hPittsburgh Pirates · $117.8K
24hPittsburgh Pirates · $105.3K

Kansas City Royals price VWAP

Volume-weighted Kansas City Royals price. Pittsburgh Pirates fills are converted to the complementary Kansas City Royals probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h43.6¢▲ above by 14.9pp
VWAP 7d43.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Kansas City Royals price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$252
70¢
$4
65¢
$3.1K
60¢
$145
55¢
← now
$24.0K
50¢
$12.0K
45¢
$70.4K
40¢
$5.7K
35¢
$93.7K
30¢
$4.2K
25¢
$7.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKansas City Royals$10.2K@ 54.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYKansas City Royals$14.3K@ 57.0¢
donaldbush0x66b2…0fdf
🐋—36 minutes ago
BUYPittsburgh Pirates$23.1K@ 51.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPittsburgh Pirates$23.4K@ 51.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPittsburgh Pirates$32.5K@ 65.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPittsburgh Pirates$25.0K@ 64.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYKansas City Royals$14.1K@ 37.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xifutloong3Pittsburgh Pirates$50.1K
BUY VWAP 51.1¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Pittsburgh Pirates$32.5K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
kkookkooPittsburgh Pirates$29.7K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·2 fills
donaldbushKansas City Royals$19.9K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·2 fills
0x1610…ae49Kansas City Royals$14.1K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
dabossrealmanPittsburgh Pirates$10.7K
BUY VWAP 58.5¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Kansas City Royals$10.2K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.