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Guangzhou: Mikalai Haliak vs Yuta Kikuchi

● quote 20 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $34.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.7KEvent: Guangzhou: Mikalai Haliak vs Yuta Kikuchi
0.5¢
Mikalai Haliak
99.5¢
Yuta Kikuchi
0.6¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$19.1K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Yuta Kikuchi · $16.6K net·2 wallets·$16.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYuta Kikuchi$9.8K@ 78¢·Gambler661

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$8
6h
+$8
tracked
$19.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: Yuta Kikuchi · $16.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 20 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 41 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 09:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mikalai Haliak and Yuta Kikuchi in the Guangzhou, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 5:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mikalai Haliak' if Mikalai Haliak advances against Yuta Kikuchi. This market will resolve to 'Yuta Kikuchi' if Yuta Kikuchi advances against Mikalai Haliak. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Yuta Kikuchi UP 11.0pp · near-book depth $893 → $3.3K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mikalai Haliak; negative values favor Yuta Kikuchi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMikalai Haliak · $8
6hMikalai Haliak · $8
24hYuta Kikuchi · $19.0K

Mikalai Haliak price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mikalai Haliak price. Yuta Kikuchi fills are converted to the complementary Mikalai Haliak probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h22.4¢▼ below by 21.9pp
VWAP 7d22.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mikalai Haliak price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$2
25¢
$0
20¢
$19.1K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$57

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Gambler661Yuta Kikuchi$16.6K
BUY VWAP 77.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.