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UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card)

Sports→Settlement: Elves BrenerLiquidity: $480.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $295.0KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card)
100.0¢
Elves Brener payout
0.0¢
Josiah Harrell payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:64 trades$118.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 78 min agoofficial metadata 66 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Josiah Harrell · $35.8K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$55.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJosiah Harrell$40.2K@ 56¢·Sassy-Bucket

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Elves Brener. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-27 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Elves Brener" if Elves Brener is officially declared the winner of the fight against Josiah Harrell at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Josiah Harrell" if Josiah Harrell is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Elves Brener" if Elves Brener is officially declared the winner of the fight against Josiah Harrell at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "Josiah Harrell" if Josiah Harrell is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Josiah Harrell@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Josiah Harrell@ 56.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Josiah Harrell DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $86 → $1 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elves Brener; negative values favor Josiah Harrell. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hElves Brener · $7.7K
6hJosiah Harrell · $60.6K
24hJosiah Harrell · $60.5K

Elves Brener price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elves Brener price. Josiah Harrell fills are converted to the complementary Elves Brener probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h45.9¢▲ above by 54.1pp
VWAP 7d45.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elves Brener price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.7K
90¢
$67
85¢
$0
80¢
$25
75¢
$25
70¢
$609
65¢
$38
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$48.7K
40¢
$75.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJosiah Harrell$40.2K@ 56.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJosiah Harrell$31.5K@ 55.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketJosiah Harrell$45.5K
BUY VWAP 55.8¢·2 fills
Talvez10Josiah Harrell$31.5K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.