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Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Semen Pankin

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $62.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $240.3KEvent: Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Semen Pankin
33.5¢
Elias Ymer
66.5¢
Semen Pankin
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets50Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$74.7K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Semen Pankin · $5.2K net·7 wallets·$10.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLElias Ymer$12.0K@ 44¢·fivethirty

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$64
6h
−$1.0K
tracked
$74.7K

7 verified profitable wallets: Semen Pankin · $5.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 42 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-21 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elias Ymer and Semen Pankin in the Guangzhou, originally scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elias Ymer' if Elias Ymer advances against Semen Pankin. This market will resolve to 'Semen Pankin' if Semen Pankin advances against Elias Ymer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Elias Ymer DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $11.1K → $5.3K · 20s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elias Ymer; negative values favor Semen Pankin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSemen Pankin · $64
6hSemen Pankin · $1.0K
24hSemen Pankin · $1.0K

Elias Ymer price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elias Ymer price. Semen Pankin fills are converted to the complementary Elias Ymer probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h42.5¢▼ below by 9.0pp
VWAP 7d42.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elias Ymer price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.0K
65¢
$5.1K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.2K
40¢
$28.4K
35¢
$33.7K
30¢
← now
$3.2K
25¢
$123
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYElias Ymer$10.0K@ 38.3¢
SS7878780xdd7e…0be3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSemen Pankin$10.0K@ 59.0¢
fivethirty0x2e6c…0c51
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLElias Ymer$12.0K@ 44.3¢
fivethirty0x2e6c…0c51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYElias Ymer$10.0K@ 36.8¢
fivethirty0x2e6c…0c51
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SS787878Elias Ymer$10.0K
BUY VWAP 38.3¢·1 fill
fivethirtySemen Pankin$10.0K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
fivethirtyElias Ymer$10.0K
BUY VWAP 36.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.