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Sao Paulo Open: Mary Stoiana vs Claire Liu

Sports→Settlement: Mary StoianaLiquidity: $492.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $626.4KEvent: Sao Paulo Open: Mary Stoiana vs Claire Liu
100.0¢
Mary Stoiana payout
0.0¢
Claire Liu payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:115 trades$184.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mary Stoiana · $26.5K net·17 wallets(1🐋)·$153.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMary Stoiana$14.1K@ 74¢·0xc323…0077

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Mary Stoiana. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-21 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mary Stoiana and Claire Liu in the Sao Paulo Open, originally scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mary Stoiana' if Mary Stoiana advances against Claire Liu. This market will resolve to 'Claire Liu' if Claire Liu advances against Mary Stoiana. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Mary Stoiana1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Mary Stoiana1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Mary Stoiana@ 40.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Mary Stoiana@ 40.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Mary Stoiana DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $44.8K → $5.2K · 9s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mary Stoiana; negative values favor Claire Liu. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hClaire Liu · $11.4K
6hMary Stoiana · $39.0K
24hMary Stoiana · $42.0K

Mary Stoiana price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mary Stoiana price. Claire Liu fills are converted to the complementary Mary Stoiana probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h68.0¢▲ above by 32.0pp
VWAP 7d68.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mary Stoiana price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$824
90¢
$13.9K
85¢
$1.4K
80¢
$30.3K
75¢
$9.0K
70¢
$42.4K
65¢
$6.9K
60¢
$33.6K
55¢
$4.2K
50¢
$25.8K
45¢
$9.6K
40¢
$6.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMary Stoiana$14.1K@ 74.0¢0xc323…0077🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Claire Liu$63.2K
BUY VWAP 21.3¢·17 fills
0xc323…0077Mary Stoiana$56.5K
BUY VWAP 55.7¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.