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Sao Paulo Open: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $15.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $324.9KEvent: Sao Paulo Open: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva
34.0¢
Xiaodi You
66.0¢
Alina Charaeva
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets11Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution68Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:119 trades$98.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Xiaodi You · $3.5K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$48.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLXiaodi You$15.1K@ 64¢·Gambler661

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alina Charaeva pressure: $4.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.0K
6h
+$927
tracked
$98.3K

13 verified profitable wallets: Xiaodi You · $3.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -43.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alina Charaeva or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-21 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Xiaodi You and Alina Charaeva in the Sao Paulo Open, originally scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Xiaodi You' if Xiaodi You advances against Alina Charaeva. This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Xiaodi You. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Xiaodi You@ 78.0¢5h ago
15m INVALIDATED -42.0pp1h INVALIDATED -43.0pp
Latest book event: Xiaodi You DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $25.2K → $178 · 17s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Xiaodi You; negative values favor Alina Charaeva. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlina Charaeva · $4.0K
6hXiaodi You · $927
24hXiaodi You · $425

Xiaodi You price VWAP

Volume-weighted Xiaodi You price. Alina Charaeva fills are converted to the complementary Xiaodi You probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.0¢
VWAP 24h52.0¢▼ below by 18.0pp
VWAP 7d51.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Xiaodi You price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$96
75¢
$7.0K
70¢
$2.0K
65¢
$10.3K
60¢
$16.5K
55¢
$15.6K
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$13.6K
40¢
$3.3K
35¢
$14.7K
30¢
← now
$10.1K
25¢
$3.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$2.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLXiaodi You$15.1K@ 63.9¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYAlina Charaeva$11.0K@ 54.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYXiaodi You$13.5K@ 57.0¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Gambler661Xiaodi You$13.5K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
kkookkooAlina Charaeva$11.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.