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Guangzhou: Naoya Honda vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Sports→Settlement: Naoya HondaLiquidity: $335.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $406.8KEvent: Guangzhou: Naoya Honda vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
100.0¢
Naoya Honda payout
0.0¢
Nikoloz Basilashvili payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:129 trades$190.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 45 min agoofficial metadata 31 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nikoloz Basilashvili · $3.1K net·15 wallets·$33.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNaoya Honda$43.5K@ 85¢·0x004c…bb89

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Naoya Honda. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-22 10:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Naoya Honda and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Guangzhou, originally scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naoya Honda' if Naoya Honda advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Naoya Honda. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Nikoloz Basilashvili DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $10.7K → $1.8K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Naoya Honda; negative values favor Nikoloz Basilashvili. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNaoya Honda · $137.1K
6hNaoya Honda · $112.4K
24hNaoya Honda · $112.4K

Naoya Honda price VWAP

Volume-weighted Naoya Honda price. Nikoloz Basilashvili fills are converted to the complementary Naoya Honda probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h68.6¢▲ above by 31.4pp
VWAP 7d68.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Naoya Honda price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$46.3K
80¢
$45.1K
75¢
$19.6K
70¢
$5.0K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$16.3K
50¢
$14.3K
45¢
$1.3K
40¢
$3.2K
35¢
$20
30¢
$15.0K
25¢
$3.8K
20¢
$4.4K
15¢
$0
10¢
$9
5¢
$10.4K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNaoya Honda$43.5K@ 85.0¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNaoya Honda$42.3K@ 89.5¢
tenniz0xeae1…a67b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNaoya Honda$19.6K@ 79.5¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNaoya Honda$14.2K@ 58.5¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x004c…bb89Naoya Honda$77.2K
BUY VWAP 77.2¢·3 fills
tennizNaoya Honda$42.3K
BUY VWAP 89.5¢·1 fill
0x076d…8d4cNaoya Honda$13.9K
BUY VWAP 54.1¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.