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Belgium vs. France: O/U 3.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $26.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $145.5KEvent: Belgium vs. France - More Markets
0.5¢
Over
99.5¢
Under
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly15Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:22 trades$60.3K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 23s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $48 net·2 wallets·$60 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$10.0K@ 65¢·kmak1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$265
6h
−$47.8K
tracked
$60.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: Under · $48 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +36.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 35 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 36.9pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-28 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if Belgium and France combine to score 4 or more goals in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Belgium and France, scheduled for September 28 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Belgium and France combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0F622 linked markets · $83.7K gross
Flaznorp4 linked markets · $69.1K gross
kmak12 linked markets · $53.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 63.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp
Latest book event: Under DOWN 10.0pp · near-book depth $16.3K → $300 · 86s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $265
6hUnder · $47.8K
24hUnder · $46.5K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h34.8¢▼ below by 34.3pp
VWAP 7d34.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$55.8K
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$3.2K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$266
5¢
$1
0¢
← now
$24

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$10.0K@ 65.0¢
kmak10x2114…c1bb
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYUnder$10.0K@ 65.0¢
kmak10x2114…c1bb
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYUnder$10.0K@ 65.0¢
kmak10x2114…c1bb
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYUnder$10.0K@ 64.5¢
kmak10x2114…c1bb
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kmak1Under$49.6K
BUY VWAP 64.9¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.