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Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $141.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $170.9KEvent: Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima
0.1¢
Timo Legout
100.0¢
Bryce Nakashima
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection50Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:81 trades$75.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bryce Nakashima · $23.9K net·9 wallets·$24.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBryce Nakashima$20.0K@ 56¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Bryce Nakashima pressure: $37.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$37.7K
6h
−$46.7K
tracked
$75.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Bryce Nakashima · $23.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +37.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 37.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Bryce Nakashima or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-23 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Timo Legout and Bryce Nakashima in the Tiburon, originally scheduled for September 16, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Timo Legout' if Timo Legout advances against Bryce Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Bryce Nakashima' if Bryce Nakashima advances against Timo Legout. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Bryce Nakashima24m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Bryce Nakashima@ 63.0¢41m ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.0pp
Latest book event: Bryce Nakashima UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $76.7K → $33.9K · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Timo Legout; negative values favor Bryce Nakashima. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBryce Nakashima · $37.7K
6hBryce Nakashima · $46.7K
24hBryce Nakashima · $24.2K

Timo Legout price VWAP

Volume-weighted Timo Legout price. Bryce Nakashima fills are converted to the complementary Timo Legout probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h44.7¢▼ below by 44.6pp
VWAP 7d44.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Timo Legout price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$375
65¢
$1.0K
60¢
$27.6K
55¢
$4.0K
50¢
$2.4K
45¢
$1.6K
40¢
$23.3K
35¢
$1.4K
30¢
$200
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.9K
10¢
$5
5¢
$52
0¢
← now
$11.9K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBryce Nakashima$20.0K@ 55.6¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooBryce Nakashima$23.0K
BUY VWAP 52.9¢·2 fills
Jan777Timo Legout$20.1K
BUY VWAP 61.6¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.