PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Lions vs. Bills

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $3.8MOfficial 24h Vol: $124.6KEvent: Lions vs. Bills
31.5¢
Lions
68.5¢
Bills
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$63.4K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bills · $28.6K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$28.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBills$18.2K@ 68¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$1
6h
−$36.4K
tracked
$63.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: Bills · $28.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 29 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Lions wins, the market will resolve to "Lions".

•If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 17 at 8:15PM ET: If Lions wins, the market will resolve to "Lions". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi4 linked markets · $33.1K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $14.0K gross
JUSTINHERBERTMVP2 linked markets · $7.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 68.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 68.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lions; negative values favor Bills. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBills · $1
6hBills · $36.4K
24hBills · $56.8K

Lions price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lions price. Bills fills are converted to the complementary Lions probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.5¢
VWAP 24h32.0¢▼ below by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d32.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Lions price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$70.8K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBills$12.8K@ 68.0¢
weflyhigh0x03e8…1697
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBills$11.8K@ 68.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBills$18.2K@ 68.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Lions vs. Bills: O/U 54.5
51.5¢$98.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
56.5¢$17.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bills (-6.5)
45.5¢$10.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bills (-4.5)
52.5¢$2.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-17?
88.5¢$761.1Kpriority74Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?
63.5¢$672.8Kpriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Caldas da Rainha: Francisca Jorge vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva
58.5¢$463.1Kpriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiBills$18.9K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·4 fills
0x076d…8d4cBills$18.2K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill
weflyhighBills$12.8K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.