Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?

● quote just now

Tech→Finance→Closes: about 3 yearsLiquidity: $138.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $38.3KEvent: Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

21.5¢

YES

78.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:12 trades$28.7K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 75%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 418 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $17.6K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$27.1K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$14.7K@ 74¢·Car

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

tracked

$28.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $17.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 418 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2030-01-01 04:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Car3 linked markets · $66.0K gross

dromedaryy3 linked markets · $63.5K gross

gambler9252 linked markets · $340 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $0

24hNO · $19.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current21.5¢

VWAP 24h25.5¢▼ below by 4.0pp

VWAP 7d25.5¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

$23.4K

20¢

← now

$5.3K

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…

Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

BUYNO$14.7K@ 73.7¢

Car0x7c3d…5c6b

🐋—about 11 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?

9.5¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?

18.5¢$143.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?

10.5¢$91.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

0.2¢$78.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

0.2¢$77.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

52.5¢$73.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?

8.5¢$73.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

63.3¢$72.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CarNo$22.0K

BUY VWAP 73.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.