Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?

● quote just now

Tech→Finance→Closes: about 2 yearsLiquidity: $326.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $143.8KEvent: Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

18.5¢

YES

81.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:1 trades$0 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 1015 min agoofficial metadata 5166 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $3.9K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$32.9K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$14.4K@ 16¢·dromedaryy

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

tracked

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $3.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
•Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
•Observed tape is 1015 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 5166 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2029-01-01 04:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Car3 linked markets · $66.0K gross

dromedaryy3 linked markets · $63.5K gross

jcsberger2 linked markets · $4.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 80.0¢5d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $0

24hYES · $0

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current18.5¢

VWAP 24h19.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp

VWAP 7d19.0¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢