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Spread: South Carolina (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $164.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $121.0KEvent: Mississippi State vs. South Carolina
49.5¢
South Carolina
50.5¢
Mississippi State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$57.6K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 175 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mississippi State · $10.0K net·2 wallets·$10.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSouth Carolina$19.0K@ 50¢·mooseborzoi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$29.9K
tracked
$57.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Mississippi State · $10.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 175 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-19 20:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "South Carolina" if South Carolina win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mississippi State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 19 at 4:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Carolina" if South Carolina win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mississippi State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY South Carolina@ 50.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor South Carolina; negative values favor Mississippi State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSouth Carolina · $0
6hSouth Carolina · $29.9K
24hSouth Carolina · $37.7K

South Carolina price VWAP

Volume-weighted South Carolina price. Mississippi State fills are converted to the complementary South Carolina probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h50.2¢▼ below by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d50.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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South Carolina price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$51.4K
45¢
← now
$6.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSouth Carolina$10.0K@ 50.0¢
WhattDoyoumean0x8660…93ed
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYSouth Carolina$19.0K@ 50.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiSouth Carolina$29.8K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·4 fills
WhattDoyoumeanSouth Carolina$10.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.