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Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $74.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $831.4KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
54.0¢
Aurora Gaming
46.0¢
Vitality
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets5Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution82Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:134 trades$335.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Vitality · $3.0K net·6 wallets(2🐋)·$42.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVitality$50.0K@ 77¢·retordedgremlin125

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Vitality pressure: $62.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$62.7K
6h
−$175.8K
tracked
$335.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: Vitality · $3.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 46

Since latest large flow: +33.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 33.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Vitality or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-19 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Vitality.

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against Aurora Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Final match between Aurora Gaming and Vitality in the StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Vitality. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against Aurora Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2983 linked markets · $61.1K gross
RN14 linked markets · $30.7K gross
CORGI82 linked markets · $27.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora Gaming57m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora Gaming57m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 22.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h CONFIRMED +44.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 22.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h CONFIRMED +44.0pp
Latest book event: Aurora Gaming UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $2.6K → $212 · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor Vitality. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVitality · $62.7K
6hVitality · $175.8K
24hVitality · $186.2K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. Vitality fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.0¢
VWAP 24h32.2¢▲ above by 21.8pp
VWAP 7d32.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$6.8K
60¢
$5.1K
55¢
$2.7K
50¢
← now
$11.1K
45¢
$85.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$3.4K
25¢
$38.8K
20¢
$179.6K
15¢
$2.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYVitality$11.7K@ 52.0¢
jtwyslljy0x9cb9…32f2
🐋—38 minutes ago
BUYVitality$10.6K@ 51.0¢
1117gudu2310x0562…18a4
🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYAurora Gaming$12.2K@ 25.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAurora Gaming$17.6K@ 24.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYVitality$12.3K@ 77.0¢
jtwyslljy0x9cb9…32f2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYVitality$50.0K@ 77.0¢
retordedgremlin1250xf0b6…2fef
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYVitality$22.5K@ 76.3¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYVitality$15.2K@ 76.0¢
jaytee1580xa2c9…2c23
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

retordedgremlin125Vitality$50.0K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
CORGI8Aurora Gaming$25.6K
BUY VWAP 24.3¢·2 fills
jtwyslljyVitality$24.0K
BUY VWAP 62.4¢·2 fills
0xf559…f462Vitality$22.5K
BUY VWAP 76.3¢·1 fill
0x1610…ae49Aurora Gaming$19.6K
BUY VWAP 24.5¢·3 fills
ifplVitality$16.3K
BUY VWAP 51.8¢·3 fills
jaytee158Vitality$15.2K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill
PS003Vitality$10.9K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·2 fills
1117gudu231Vitality$10.6K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
aaaa298Aurora Gaming$10.3K
BUY VWAP 50.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.