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Spread: Fresno State (-3.5)

Sports→Settlement: Fresno StateLiquidity: $140.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $163.8KEvent: Fresno State vs. San Jose State
100.0¢
Fresno State payout
0.0¢
San Jose State payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Fresno State · $2.4K net·6 wallets·$7.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFresno State$30.0K@ 51¢·BrotherObama

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Fresno State. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-20 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Jose State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 19 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Jose State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz262 linked markets · $57.7K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $44.3K gross
RN12 linked markets · $23.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Fresno State; negative values favor San Jose State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSan Jose State · $1.4K
6hFresno State · $42.6K
24hFresno State · $42.6K

Fresno State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Fresno State price. San Jose State fills are converted to the complementary Fresno State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h51.4¢▲ above by 48.6pp
VWAP 7d51.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Fresno State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.5K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.1K
50¢
$66.9K
45¢
$2.6K
40¢
$5.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFresno State$20.0K@ 51.2¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—5 days ago
BUYFresno State$30.0K@ 51.3¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—5 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaFresno State$50.0K
BUY VWAP 51.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.