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Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $51.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $545.5KEvent: LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
56.0¢
Karmine Corp
44.0¢
Movistar KOI
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection39Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution57Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:32 trades$265.7K tracked16% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Movistar KOI · $42.2K net·3 wallets(2🐋)·$162.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMovistar KOI$98.4K@ 47¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Movistar KOI pressure: $104.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$104.3K
6h
−$28.7K
tracked
$265.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: Movistar KOI · $42.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 77% · priority 52

Since latest whale follow through: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Movistar KOI or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-19 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp wins 2 or more games than Movistar KOI in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Movistar KOI".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Movistar KOI in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp wins 2 or more games than Movistar KOI in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Movistar KOI". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x076d…8d4c3 linked markets · $119.9K gross
fantasy77883 linked markets · $96.8K gross
fkcvffcjt2 linked markets · $15.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Movistar KOI@ 46.0¢10m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Movistar KOI@ 47.0¢55m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Karmine Corp@ 54.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: Movistar KOI UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $15 → $357 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Karmine Corp; negative values favor Movistar KOI. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMovistar KOI · $104.3K
6hMovistar KOI · $28.7K
24hMovistar KOI · $28.7K

Karmine Corp price VWAP

Volume-weighted Karmine Corp price. Movistar KOI fills are converted to the complementary Karmine Corp probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.0¢
VWAP 24h53.2¢▲ above by 2.8pp
VWAP 7d53.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Karmine Corp price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$3.3K
50¢
$262.5K
45¢
$11
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMovistar KOI$20.0K@ 49.3¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYMovistar KOI$98.4K@ 47.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKarmine Corp$60.0K@ 54.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKarmine Corp$12.0K@ 54.0¢0x388e…3360🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKarmine Corp$14.7K@ 53.0¢0x3af1…d739🐋—about 2 hours ago

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73.5¢$411.1Kpriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cMovistar KOI$101.1K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·2 fills
BrotherObamaKarmine Corp$60.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
0x3af1…d739Karmine Corp$22.0K
BUY VWAP 53.3¢·2 fills
fantasy7788Movistar KOI$20.0K
BUY VWAP 49.3¢·1 fill
0x388e…3360Karmine Corp$17.2K
BUY VWAP 53.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.