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Spread: France (-1.5)

Sports→Settlement: ItalyLiquidity: $167.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $198.0KEvent: France vs. Italy - More Markets
0.0¢
France payout
100.0¢
Italy payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Italy · $15.4K net·5 wallets·$15.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrance$26.0K@ 43¢·SystemeBis

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Italy. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-02 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "France" if France win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Italy".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for October 2 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "France" if France win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Italy". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Flaznorp7 linked markets · $81.4K gross
bluemario3 linked markets · $71.8K gross
0x8191…da722 linked markets · $34.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY France@ 43.0¢4d ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor France; negative values favor Italy. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrance · $0
6hFrance · $13.6K
24hFrance · $9.0K

France price VWAP

Volume-weighted France price. Italy fills are converted to the complementary France probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h39.6¢▼ below by 39.6pp
VWAP 7d39.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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France price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2
40¢
$58.2K
35¢
$2.8K
30¢
$2.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$38
15¢
$0
10¢
$12
5¢
$5.0K
0¢
← now
$81

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrance$26.0K@ 42.9¢
SystemeBis0x7d7e…9056
🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SystemeBisFrance$35.4K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.